A trio of fresh data releases paints a mixed picture of the Italian economy. There is strong momentum in property and manufacturing, but a sharply higher energy bill on the horizon.
Property market heats up
Italy’s housing market recorded broad-based growth in 2025, according to a report on urban property sales by the National Council of Notaries, previewed by ANSA. Sales volumes rose across all major cities, with Palermo posting the standout figure of 25.91%. Rome was up 7.8%, Turin 8.88%, Naples 6.93%, Bologna 6.42%, and Milan 5.63%.
The city-level data aligns with a separate notaries’ report published last month showing that real-estate transactions across Italy as a whole rose by 6.6% in 2025 compared to the previous year. A significant driver was credit availability: the number of mortgages granted climbed 18.8% to reach 404,530 for the year, suggesting that easing borrowing conditions played a material role in unlocking demand.
Industrial production extends recovery
Italy’s seasonally adjusted industrial production index rose 0.5% in April compared to March, national statistics agency Istat reported on Wednesday. This is the third consecutive month-on-month increase. On a calendar-adjusted basis, output was up 1.3% year-on-year against April 2025, extending a gradual recovery in the manufacturing sector that has been one of the more encouraging signals in recent months.
Energy costs set to jump
The upbeat property and industrial figures are offset by a sobering energy outlook. Industry association UNEM, which represents companies in refining and fuel distribution, warned on Wednesday that Italy’s total energy bill for 2026 is forecast to reach €57–58 billion. That would be an increase of €8–9 billion on last year’s €48.7 billion. The rise is projected to occur even if the current Iran crisis is resolved. UNEM estimated Italy’s oil import bill alone at around €24 billion for 2026, roughly €4.5 billion more than last year, based on an assumed average annual crude price of $90 per barrel.
Whilst certain elements of the economy appear to be recovering and growing, energy costs are undermining the positive effect.
