Italy’s intelligence services have warned that the risk of terrorism in Italy and abroad is increasing amid growing international tensions linked to the Middle East and other global crises.
The warning appears in the latest annual report from the country’s intelligence community, which highlights the potential security consequences of the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States. The report notes that the situation in Iran is fuelling international tensions and raising “fears of an escalation that could also impact the terrorist threat.”
The document also points to growing concerns over the activities of the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Europe. According to the report, the risks linked to Hamas operations on European soil have increased, particularly because of its involvement in the circulation of weapons and potential hostile plans against Israeli and Jewish targets.
Italian authorities have already conducted several counter-terrorism operations against individuals connected in various ways to the Middle Eastern conflict, mirroring similar actions in other European countries.
Likely exploitation of geopolitical crises
The intelligence community says international terrorist groups are likely to try to exploit current geopolitical crises to expand their influence and recruitment. The report states that extremist organisations are increasingly adapting their propaganda to capitalise on ongoing conflicts and tensions.
Officials also warn that the interconnected nature of current global crises could amplify the external projection of terrorist threats towards Europe, including Italy. Police operations carried out across the continent have reinforced the need for vigilance over potential terrorist financing channels and the networks that Hamas may attempt to establish abroad.
In the current climate, the report says, antisemitism is becoming increasingly international in scope and is appearing across different extremist ideologies.
Although written before the recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the report already warned that a wider Middle Eastern conflict, particularly one involving Tehran, could increase the likelihood of terrorist attacks spreading to Europe in the near future. Intelligence analysts say such developments could raise the risk of attacks in Europe, including in Italy, especially against Israeli or US targets.
The report adds that jihadist propaganda could seek to exploit a potential confrontation involving Tehran by calling for a “global jihad” against what extremists describe as the “common enemy”, the West.
Beyond the Middle East, the intelligence services highlight several other emerging security concerns.
Emerging security concerns
They warn that terrorist groups are increasingly using artificial intelligence to support propaganda, recruitment and operational planning. The report also identifies Russia and China as the principal actors behind hybrid threats targeting Europe.
Domestically, analysts say the most concrete internal security threat in Italy comes from anarchist groups, while the report also notes a growing trend of minors becoming radicalised through online networks.
The intelligence services also examined migration patterns, reporting that irregular migrant arrivals have fallen by about 5% following the implementation of the EU’s new Pact on Migration and Asylum.
On the war in Ukraine, the report states that the most significant threat to Europe continues to come from Russia. It adds that Ukraine has lost approximately 1.4% of its territory over the past two years during the ongoing conflict.
Finally, the intelligence community raised concerns about the development of autonomous weapons systems, warning that the rapid evolution of such technologies could pose new and unpredictable security risks in the coming years.
