Record energy demand, rising excess mortality among the over-65s and 19 cities on red alert by Saturday mark the country’s most punishing heatwave of the year so far. There will be a gradual easing from Monday.
Italy’s third major heatwave of the summer is set to reach its peak on Friday, with temperatures forecast to hit 45–46°C in parts of the country, as extreme heat continues to strain the national grid and take a measurable toll on public health.
Energy demand hits highest level of the year
The extreme heat of recent days is driving energy consumption to record levels, grid operator Terna said on Thursday. According to data on the Terna portal, Wednesday 15 July saw the highest hourly peak demand of 2026 so far, recorded between 3pm and 4pm at 57,985 MW.
The figure, provisional and subject to revision, is 4.6% higher than the equivalent 2025 peak of 55,450 MW, underlining the scale of air conditioning use as households and businesses attempt to cope with the heat.
Excess mortality among the elderly
The health ministry said Thursday that Italy recorded 3% excess mortality among over-65s in June because of the heatwaves, in what it confirmed had been the second hottest June on record. Analysis of daily mortality surveillance data for over-65s across the period 25 May to 30 June, covering all cities monitored, showed the average excess mortality was limited to 3%. The figure was described as comparatively modest set against other European countries.
The health ministry’s heatwave control room noted that the data for the period highlighted that June 2026 was the second hottest ever recorded, both globally and across Europe.
Red alerts spreading to 19 cities
The health ministry also confirmed that the number of Italian cities under red warnings for extreme heat will rise to 19 by Saturday. On Thursday, 15 of the 27 major cities monitored by the ministry were already on maximum alert: Turin, Brescia, Genoa, Bologna, Florence, Perugia, Viterbo, Rieti, Rome, Frosinone, Latina, Pescara, Campobasso, Cagliari and Palermo. Milan joins the list on Friday, taking the total to 16, before Ancona, Civitavecchia and Catania are bumped up to red alert on Saturday.
A red warning, or Level 3 alert, signals a heatwave emergency involving prolonged extreme heat and a high general health risk. The alert level applies even to young, otherwise healthy people, not just the elderly or vulnerable.
Friday’s peak: up to 46°C
Meteorologist Lorenzo Tedici of iLMeteo.it said the brutal third heatwave of the summer would peak on Friday, with the mercury reaching 45–46°C in some areas, before beginning to ease from Monday. Despite violent thunderstorms in the north, he said, temperatures across the country are still climbing.
“Cagliari, Nuoro, Caltanissetta, and Foggia will reach 41–42°C,” Tedici said, adding that Ascoli Piceno would reach 40°C, while the 39°C threshold would be widespread in Agrigento, Terni, Florence, Forlì, Frosinone, Macerata and Isernia. Inland areas, he noted, would fare even worse, with temperatures forecast to reach 46°C in Sardinia and 45°C in Sicily.
Saturday will bring little relief, with temperatures remaining largely unchanged across the peninsula, dropping only 1–2°C in the north. Sunday offers no further respite, with 41°C expected in Caltanissetta and 39°C widespread across Sicily, Sardinia and Calabria, while Umbria and Puglia will just reach 38°C. Only the north will see a further slight dip, accompanied by additional cloud cover.
Day-by-day outlook
- Friday 17th: Hot and sunny in the north, with thunderstorms over the Alps; sunny and very hot in the centre; sunny and exceptionally hot in the south, with 44–46°C in Sardinia and Sicily.
- Saturday 18th: Warm with some thunderstorms in the north-east; sunny and very hot in the centre; sunny and still exceptionally hot in the south.
- Outlook: A gradual end to the third African heatwave is expected from Monday 20th July, with temperatures widely falling to 32–33°C, though the far south and the major islands will continue to experience uncomfortably hot, if somewhat eased, conditions.
