Italy is grappling with a dual economic challenge: workers’ real hourly wages are falling, while export and import flows are shifting markedly. Data released this week by the Istat reveal that, in September 2025, hourly contract wages were 8.8 % lower in real terms compared with January 2021. At the same time, nominal wages held flat between August and September, and were 2.6 % higher year-on-year.
Istat’s figures show that the year-on-year nominal wage increase was stronger among civil servants (+3.3 %) than for those working in industry (+2.3 %) or private services (+2.4 %). Meanwhile, trade data point to volatile export patterns: Italian exports to the United States jumped by 34.4 % in September compared with the same month a year earlier, while imports from the U.S. surged by 76.8 %. At the same time, exports to non-EU 27 countries rose by 9.9 %, and imports from those countries increased by 16.9 %.
In September, exports to OPEC countries rose by 23.8 % year-on-year, while those to Japan and Switzerland climbed by 15.6 % and 10 % respectively. Exports to Turkey, however, fell by 33.9 %. Imports from China and India rose by 32.3 % and 28.6 % respectively. Despite the growth in exports, Italy’s trade surplus with non-EU countries in September stood at €2.738 billion, down from €3.753 billion in September 2024; excluding energy, the surplus was €6.177 billion, down from €7.679 billion.
Together these figures highlight an economy under pressure. On the wage front, even though nominal pay is growing modestly, inflation and cost pressures are eroding purchasing power. Istat’s latest data show consumer prices stable at an annual rate of 1.6 % in September, with core inflation (excluding energy and unprocessed food) at 2.1 %.
GDP growth forecast drops
The broader context is one of weak growth: Istat forecasts Italy’s GDP growth at about 0.6 % for 2025 and 0.8 % for 2026, down from earlier expectations. Export-oriented sectors face uncertainty as global demand slows and trade policy risks increase. The surge in imports from the U.S., China and India suggests supply-chain adjustments, but the drop in the non-energy trade surplus signals increasing strain.
For Italian workers and households the implications are clear: stagnant nominal pay, erosion of real incomes and higher cost of living may weigh on consumption and domestic demand. For businesses and policymakers the message is also urgent: improving productivity, fighting inflation and managing external risk will be essential to reverse the wage slide and sustain the export engine.
