Italy’s national statistics agency, Istat, reported a decline in both consumer and business confidence for March 2025. The consumer confidence index dropped from 98.8 in February to 95.0.
All components of the index declined, with the economic and future indices falling from 100.2 to 93.2 and from 96.6 to 91.1, respectively. The personal confidence index decreased from 98.3 to 95.7, while the current confidence index fell from 100.5 to 97.9.
The IESI (Istat Economic Sentiment Indicator) business confidence index declined for the second consecutive month, dropping from 94.7 to 93.3.
Sector-Specific Confidence Trends
Confidence in the manufacturing sector declined from 86.9 to 86.0. Assessments of order books were negative, with the balance dropping from -20.8 to -23.3. However, expectations for future production showed a slight improvement, moving from -1.0 to -0.8. Inventory levels increased, with the balance rising from 2.5 to 3.0.
In contrast, confidence in the construction sector improved, increasing from 103.4 to 104.6. Despite worsening assessments of order books, which declined from -0.4 to -2.0, expectations for future employment rose from 7.5 to 11.5.
The market services sector continued to decline, with confidence falling from 97.4 to 94.5. Negative expectations and assessments of order books prevailed, with their respective balances decreasing from 2.4 to -2.1 and from 4.7 to 2.7. Firms expressed unfavourable opinions on the current business trend, with the balance dropping from 4.7 to 2.1.
Retail trade confidence remained stable, edging down from 104.0 to 103.9. Respondents provided a less favourable assessment of current business activity, with the balance decreasing from 21.1 to 14.8. However, expectations for future sales volume improved, rising from 18.5 to 25.8, while inventory levels increased from 6.6 to 7.8.
US Tariffs Impact Italian Economy
Italian wine exports to the United States have been affected by US tariffs, with shipments already blocked, according to the Unione Italiana Vini.
“The tariffs are already applied even if they do not exist because exports are blocked. American importers have blocked the import of our wines fearing they will have to pay the duty because there is no rule that at least now excludes products in transit from the duties,” said Paolo Castelletti, general director of the Unione Italiana Vini, during Vinitaly.
He added, “So when products in transit were also subject to duties, at that point the duty would fall on the importer, this would essentially mean going bankrupt.”
Also read: How will US tariffs affect Italy
Automotive industry price hikes
Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on auto vehicles and parts are also expected to have a significant impact on Italian companies in the automotive supply chain, according to sector group ANFIA.
“The tariffs will not have a devastating effect, but a significant one. At a time when manufacturers and component suppliers are suffering and this is a further element of uncertainty,” said Gian Marco Giorda, director of ANFIA.
“We export from Italy about 1.2 billion components to the United States and import 230 million, while as regards vehicles we export three times what we import. We hope that it is a negotiating move and that there is room to stop this manoeuvre. A car could cost between $6,000 and $10,000 more than the current price,” explained Giorda.
Ferrari announced price hikes of up to 10% in response to the tariffs but confirmed its financial targets despite a potential reduction of 50 basis points in profitability margins.
The luxury carmaker stated, “The commercial conditions will remain unchanged for orders of all models imported before 2 April 2025 and for orders of the three Ferrari 296, SF90 and Roma families.”
