The birth rate in Italy continued its decline in 2023, with provisional data from ISTAT revealing 379,000 resident births, equivalent to 6.4 births per thousand people.
ISTAT’s provisional figures for 2023 show a marked decrease in the Italian birth rate. There were 14,000 fewer births compared to 2022, representing a 3.6% drop. Additionally, the birth rate decreased from 6.7 births per thousand people in the previous year.
ISTAT reported that births in Italy have experienced a significant decline of 34.3% since 2008, the last year to see an increase. The average number of children per woman also decreased from 1.24 in 2022 to 1.20 in 2023, nearing the historical minimum of 1.19 children per woman recorded in 1995.
Italy’s resident population
As of January 1, 2024, the resident population in Italy stood at just under 59 million, showing a decrease of 7,000 compared to the previous year. However, this decline in population was offset by the positive foreign migration balance, with 2023 witnessing an overall positive balance of 274,000.
There were 326,000 new foreign resident arrivals. A negative balance of 53,000 resident Italian citizens due to emigration abroad, partially offset this figure.
Geographically, the resident population grew in the north of Italy, remained stable in the centre, and decreased in the south. Deaths in 2023 also decreased significantly, with 54,000 fewer deaths compared to the previous year, totalling 661,000 deaths, an 8% drop according to ISTAT.
Increased life expectancy
This decline in mortality contributed to a notable increase in life expectancy at birth, which rose by six months from 2022 to reach 83.1 years in 2023.
Life expectancy at birth for men increased to 81.1 years, a gain of six months from 2022, while for women, it reached 85.2 years, an increase of five months from the previous year.
What effect does a low birth rate have on the economy?
The negative effects of a low birth rate will be evident in the long run, especially when coupled with an increase in life expectancy. Then, the number of people relying on pensions and healthcare will put pressure on the government’s budget with fewer contributions from a smaller workforce.
However, in the short term, as a country’s birth rate declines, the proportion of people of working age increases. This in turn can fuel economic improvement.
In other words, the youth dependency ratio will lower, increasing the working-age share. There will less saturation in the labour market which should see an increase in productivity. All this points to an increase in income per head.
